The Reserve Bank of India (RBI), which mainly gauges the retail inflation to arrive on its bi-monthly monetary policies, has set a medium-term target for Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation of 4 per cent within a band of +/- 2 per cent, while supporting growth.15 per cent and reverse repo rate at 4. First, the upsurge in prices of vegetables is likely to continue in immediate months; however, a pick-up in arrivals from the late kharif season along with measures taken by the government to augment supply through imports should help soften vegetables prices by early February 2020," RBI said on December 5.Tomato, Onion, Potato (TOP) have been accorded TOP priority by central government in 2018-19 Union Budget and a Rs 500 crore Operation Greens was okayed in November last year to boost production and processing of these three commodities to check price volatility in these key kitchen staples.While the surge in vegetable prices will eventually reverse, the elevated inflation for pulses needs to be watched with caution, unless rabi sowing picks up pace, according to Nayar.It unexpectedly hit a pause button on cutting the key (repo) interest rate, giving more importance to prevailing inflation pressure and rising food prices over a worrying slowdown in the economy. Besides, the inclusion of services in retail but not in the wholesale index continued, as, despite being on a falling clip, services inflation was relatively elevated," as per Anand Rathi."Healthy groundwater and reservoir levels bode well for rabi output and yields of various cereals."The RBI rate pause is likely to continue.Costlier vegetables slowly pushed retail inflation, which had remained well within the Reserve Banks comfortable level of 4 per cent during most part of 2019, peaked to more than three-year high of 5.8 per cent.90 per cent. Low growth, however, rules out any rate hike," Anand Rathi brokerage said.30 per cent during January to August, and started to move up steadily post monsoon as crop damage due to unseasonal rains hurt the supplies in a big way."Going forward, the inflation outlook is likely to be influenced by several factors.The up-tick of WPI inflation to 0. Consequently, despite low core and WPI inflation, as also deflation in fuel and manufactured product prices, the RBI is unlikely to cut the policy rate soon.Though well below the price jump seen for the humble daily consumable bulb and tomato, China Wholesale frozen broad beans factory potato also become costlier as crop damages and disruptions stoked supply crunch.Government action to rein-in rising onion prices came in very late, which contracted to import bulk supplies of onion from markets such as Egypt, Turkey and Afghanistan.Retail inflation hovered mainly in the range of 2-3.16 per cent in October mainly on account of cheaper fuel and power.ICRA Economist Aditi Nayar expects moderation in vegetable prices to a large extent by early 2020.In its monetary policy review in December, it raised the retail inflation projection to 5.5 per cent in November, retail inflation was at a multi-year high while, in the same month, WPI inflation at 0.8-6 per cent in December 2019..The status quo came in after five consecutive cuts in repo rate since February, as the six-member Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), headed by RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das, unanimously voted to hold the key repo rate at 5.As per the government data, prices of onion in the wholesale market went up by 172 per cent in November from a year ago.7 per cent for the second half of 2019-20 mainly on costlier onion, fruits, pulses, milk and cereals, from 3.ICRA expects the CPI inflation to spike further to 5.58 per cent in November was attributable to costlier vegetables, mainly onion as well as pulses.On the wholesale front, the 2019 inflation story was on a different trajectory with prices moving downwards from a high of 3.For the first half of next fiscal too, it has raised the projection to 4-3.6 per cent was modest.On the WPI-CPI divergence, brokerage firm Anand Rathi said at 5. The RBI targets retail inflation, which has jumped 240 basis points (bps) in the last four months and is now close to the upper end of the RBIs target zone.Though trailing behind in the price race, potato joined its buddies of the TOP priority grouping, selling for as high as Rs 30 a kg in retail market for sometime in December due to supply disruptions before moderating to the current level of around Rs 20-25 a kg.54 per cent in November. However, the year-on-year decline in the area sown under rabi pulses and oilseeds poses a concern, given the high inflation being recorded by some of these items," Nayar said.CARE Ratings expects inflation to range in 4-4."High food inflation contrasted with deflation in fuel and manufactured product inflation is creating this situation as the retail price index assigns much higher weights to food than does the WPI.58 per cent in January to the lowest 0.1-4.New Delhi: Onion literally brought tears to the eyes of consumers as retail prices touched Rs 200 per kilogram and tomato too turned pricier in the last quarter of 2019, leaving many scurrying for changes in dietary ways as costly food items pushed retail inflation to a more than three-year high.5 per cent for the rest of the year (2019-20), adding the "base effect will not be favourable in the coming months".For most part of 2019, the government was successful in price control but the party seemed to have lost the sheen later in the year, thanks to TOP and other food items.5-3.Albeit for a brief period during monsoon and afterwards, retail price of tomato went up to Rs 80 per kg.7 per cent projected earlier.Add to this, garlic prices have now started to spike, touching as high as Rs 30-40 for a mere 100 gram. Even as supplies have been hitting the Indian shores on a daily basis, onion continues to rule at over Rs 130 a kg in various retail domestic markets, potato at Rs 20-30 a kg, while tomato has come down to around Rs 30-40 per kg

75 per cent in its second bi-monthly policy review of FY20.Mumbai: The Reserve Bank on Thursday raised the retail inflation forecast marginally to 3-3. First, the summer pick-up in vegetable prices has been sharper than expected, though this may be accompanied by a correspondingly larger reversal during autumn and winter," RBI said in its second bi-monthly monetary policy statement."The baseline inflation trajectory for 2019-20 is shaped by several factors.7 per cent for H2:2019-20, with risks broadly balanced," RBI said.Even as a significant weakening of domestic and external demand conditions appear to have led to a sharp broad-based decline of 60 basis points in inflation excluding food and fuel in April; this has imparted a downward bias to the inflation trajectory for the rest of the year, read the RBI policy statement.1 per cent for the first half of the current fiscal, tracking uptick in food prices - mainly vegetables, albeit expectations of a normal monsoon this year.In its first bi-monthly policy for FY20 in April, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) had forecast the retail inflation to be hovering in the range of 2.8 per cent.Risks around the baseline inflation trajectory emanate from uncertainties relating to the monsoon, unseasonal spikes in vegetable prices, international fuel prices and their pass-through to domestic prices, geo-political tensions, financial market volatility and the fiscal scenario, it added.Besides, the more recent information suggests a broad-based pick-up in prices in several food items.4-3. This has imparted iqf small sweet potato an upward bias to the near-term trajectory of food inflation, RBI said, adding that crude prices have continued to be volatile.However, the retail inflation projection for the second half of this fiscal has been cut to 3.25 per cent to 5."Taking into consideration these factors, the impact of recent policy rate cuts and expectations of a normal monsoon in 2019, the path of CPI inflation is revised to 3.7 per cent as against RBIs previous projection of 3.5-3.9-3 per cent for six months till September.Cutting benchmark lending rates for the third consecutive time, the apex bank slashed the repo rate - the short-term lending rate at which bank borrows from the RBI - by 0.0-3.1 per cent for H1:2019-20 and to 3..4-3